Written for an executive to understand and an analyst to audit. Every formula shown here is the same code that computes the numbers on screen, and unit tests verify it reproduces the published seed scores.
Merchandise is built around persistent brands, characters, and symbols — not individual releases. A hoodie sells because of what God of War means to its owner, not because of a specific title's launch week. LootSignal therefore scores franchises at the IP level.
Individual titles still matter: they act as momentum catalysts. A new mainline release, remake, or adaptation temporarily lifts awareness and purchase intent, which the forecast model captures as catalyst adjustments rather than as changes to the franchise's underlying identity.
Each franchise is scored 0–10 on eight criteria by the research team: brand recognition (22%), momentum (18%), fandom engagement (15%), visual suitability (15%), licensing feasibility (12%), demographic fit (8%), pricing power (5%), and competition/whitespace (5%). The weighted sum, multiplied by 10, is the 0–100 overall score.
Weights encode a small-company thesis: awareness and heat drive discovery (40% combined), product-translatable visuals and engaged fandoms drive conversion (30%), and licensing feasibility is weighted enough (12%) to keep unactionable giants from topping the board.
Criterion-level scores for the top 10 are analyst-authored from the research snapshot. For ranks 11–50 the breakdowns are internal model estimates calibrated to the published seed scores, and every surface that shows them says so.
overallScore = ( brandRecognition * 0.22 + momentum * 0.18 + fandomEngagement * 0.15 + visualSuitability * 0.15 + licensingFeasibility * 0.12 + demographicFit * 0.08 + priceElasticity * 0.05 + whitespace * 0.05 ) * 10
| Criterion | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Brand recognition | 22% | How widely the IP is known beyond its core player base. |
| Momentum | 18% | Current cultural and engagement heat: releases, players, conversation. |
| Fandom engagement | 15% | Depth of fan identity — community, cosplay, collecting behavior. |
| Visual suitability | 15% | How well symbols, palettes, and iconography translate to products. |
| Licensing feasibility | 12% | How practical a license is for a small company (10 = easiest). |
| Demographic fit | 8% | Overlap with demographics that buy physical merchandise. |
| Pricing power | 5% | Willingness of fans to pay premium prices. |
| Competition / whitespace | 5% | How under-served the merch market is (10 = wide open). |
The model produces two views. The Raw Demand Score measures consumer and fandom potential while largely ignoring rights friction — it excludes licensing feasibility and whitespace and reweights the remaining criteria. The Small-Company Actionability Score is the full weighted model, which prices in licensing complexity, market saturation, and operational exposure.
The primary ranking uses actionability. This is why Marvel's Spider-Man — the highest raw-demand franchise in the dataset — ranks seventh: a rights stack spanning Sony Interactive, Insomniac, and Marvel plus a saturated market makes it close to unactionable for a small licensee.
rawDemandScore = ( brandRecognition * 0.28 + momentum * 0.22 + fandomEngagement * 0.20 + visualSuitability * 0.15 + demographicFit * 0.10 + priceElasticity * 0.05 ) * 10 // licensing feasibility and whitespace excluded (modeled view)
Scores map to recommendation bands: 85–100 Priority, 80–84.9 Strong Pursuit, 75–79.9 Selective Pursuit, 68–74.9 Test or Monitor, 60–67.9 Niche Only, and below 60 Deprioritize. The interface keeps the bands visually distinct — not every good score is green — so the board reads as a portfolio, not a leaderboard.
| Range | Label | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 85–100 | Priority | Strongest actionable opportunities; pursue first. |
| 80–84.9 | Strong Pursuit | High-conviction opportunities worth active pursuit. |
| 75–79.9 | Selective Pursuit | Pursue with a focused category or audience angle. |
| 68–74.9 | Test or Monitor | Small tests or watchlist; not a lead opportunity today. |
| 60–67.9 | Niche Only | Viable only as a narrow, low-volume niche play. |
| 0–59.9 | Deprioritize | Not commercially compelling under the current model. |
Every franchise carries a 0–100 confidence score built from six evidence components: official sales evidence (25%), source recency (20%), source diversity (15%), engagement evidence (15%), merchandise-market evidence (15%), and licensing evidence (10%).
Bands are High (80–100), Medium (60–79), and Low (below 60). Confidence is always displayed as text plus an icon and number — never color alone — and low-confidence franchises widen their forecast intervals automatically.
confidenceScore = officialSalesEvidence*0.25 + sourceRecency*0.20 + sourceDiversity*0.15 + engagementEvidence*0.15 + merchEvidence*0.15 + licensingEvidence*0.10
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Official sales evidence | 25% |
| Source recency | 20% |
| Source diversity | 15% |
| Engagement evidence | 15% |
| Merchandise-market evidence | 15% |
| Licensing evidence | 10% |
Forecasts project the opportunity score at 6, 12, and 24 months. Starting from the current score, the model adds release-catalyst, media-catalyst, engagement-trend, and merch-whitespace adjustments, then subtracts licensing-delay, saturation, and staleness drags. Adjustments are calibrated at the 12-month horizon; month 6 realizes about half of them, and by month 24 trend-led gains partially decay while structural drags compound.
Every forecast carries low and high cases. Intervals widen for low-confidence franchises, unconfirmed releases, multi-party licensing, volatile live-service engagement, and older franchises without recent disclosures. Unconfirmed catalysts are scenario assumptions — the model never treats a rumor as an announcement.
Forecast scores are directional scenarios based on available market indicators, model weights, catalyst assumptions, licensing friction, and merchandise-market evidence. They are not predictions of actual sales or profit.
projectedOpportunity = currentOpportunity + releaseCatalystAdjustment + mediaCatalystAdjustment + engagementTrendAdjustment + merchWhitespaceAdjustment - licensingDelayAdjustment - saturationAdjustment - stalenessAdjustment
Tier 1 — publisher, developer, investor-relations, or official platform data. Tier 2 — established industry databases and analytics services. Tier 3 — community, streaming, retail, and search proxies. Modeled — internal calculation with no external source.
Every displayed metric can show its source, tier, as-of date, and whether it is observed or modeled. Missing data is shown as “Not publicly reported” — never as zero — and modeled values are never presented as reported facts.
Dated records are tracked against the research as-of date with four statuses: Current (within 6 months), Review soon (6–12 months), Stale (older than 12 months), and Unknown (no date on record). The Data Room surfaces everything approaching or past its review threshold.
Default thresholds: review after 180 days, stale after 365 days. The Data Room lets you tighten the review window.