Forecast Lab

Reweight the model, set scenario assumptions, and watch the ranking recalculate instantly. Export scenarios as JSON to share, or save them locally.

Presets

Criterion weights

Total 100.0%

Brand recognition22%

Momentum18%

Fandom engagement15%

Visual suitability15%

Licensing feasibility12%

Demographic fit8%

Pricing power5%

Competition / whitespace5%

Scenario controls

Forecast horizon

Release catalyst importance1.0×

Transmedia importance1.0×

Licensing-risk tolerance5/10

Minimum confidence threshold0

Evergreen ↔ trend preferenceNeutral

Low-MOQ preference0.0

High-AOV collectibles preference0.0

Apparel preference0.0

Family-friendly preference0.0

Save / share scenario

Scenario name

Biggest risers

No rank improvements under this scenario.

Biggest fallers

No rank declines under this scenario.

Updated first-wave allocation

Helldivers 225%
God of War20%
Ghost of Tsushima15%
Astro Bot15%
Horizon10%
The Last of Us5%
Marvel's Spider-Man5%
Exploratory / benchmark tests5%

Editable strategic scenario — not a guarantee of returns.

Updated category recommendations

T-shirts
Hoodies
Posters & prints
Pins & patches
Headwear
Journals & stationery

Weighted by the best-category lists of the scenario's top 10.

Scenario ranking

Rank	Franchise	Scenario score	Default score	Rank change	Confidence
1	Helldivers 2	86.0	86.0	—	High · 85
2	God of War	85.1	85.1	—	Medium · 78
3	Ghost of Tsushima	85.0	85.0	—	Medium · 80
4	Astro Bot	83.5	83.5	—	Medium · 79
5	Horizon	83.2	83.2	—	Medium · 77
6	The Last of Us	83.2	83.2	—	Medium · 75
7	Marvel's Spider-Man	82.8	82.8	—	Medium · 77
8	Gran Turismo	80.8	80.8	—	Medium · 75
9	Death Stranding	79.9	79.9	—	Medium · 66
10	Bloodborne	78.8	78.8	—	Medium · 64
11	Ratchet & Clank	77.6	77.6	—	Medium · 60
12	Uncharted	76.8	76.8	—	Medium · 60
13	LittleBigPlanet / Sackboy	76.1	76.1	—	Medium · 60
14	Resident Evil	75.8	75.8	—	Medium · 77
15	Final Fantasy VII	75.5	75.5	—	Medium · 73
16	MLB The Show	74.9	74.9	—	Medium · 63
17	Persona	74.5	74.5	—	Medium · 69
18	WipEout	73.9	73.9	—	Low · 45
19	Twisted Metal	73.2	73.2	—	Medium · 63
20	Elden Ring	72.8	72.8	—	Medium · 75
21	Metal Gear Solid	72.5	72.5	—	Medium · 64
22	Monster Hunter	72.1	72.1	—	Low · 59
23	Stellar Blade	71.7	71.7	—	Medium · 63
24	Like a Dragon / Yakuza	71.0	71.0	—	Low · 59
25	Kingdom Hearts	70.3	70.3	—	Low · 59
26	Demon's Souls	69.8	69.8	—	Medium · 60
27	Silent Hill	69.5	69.5	—	Low · 59
28	Nioh	68.7	68.7	—	Medium · 60
29	Days Gone	68.1	68.1	—	Medium · 60
30	Street Fighter	67.8	67.8	—	Low · 59
31	Crash Bandicoot	67.6	67.6	—	Low · 59
32	Tekken	67.5	67.5	—	Low · 59
33	Jak and Daxter	67.1	67.1	—	Low · 45
34	Sly Cooper	66.4	66.4	—	Low · 45
35	Ape Escape	66.1	66.1	—	Low · 45
36	Returnal	65.8	65.8	—	Medium · 60
37	inFAMOUS	65.2	65.2	—	Low · 45
38	Spyro	64.9	64.9	—	Low · 59
39	Until Dawn	64.8	64.8	—	Medium · 63
40	Journey	64.4	64.4	—	Medium · 60
41	PaRappa the Rapper	64.3	64.3	—	Low · 45
42	SOCOM	63.7	63.7	—	Low · 45
43	Patapon	63.5	63.5	—	Low · 45
44	Killzone	63.0	63.0	—	Low · 45
45	Resistance	62.6	62.6	—	Low · 45
46	MotorStorm	62.2	62.2	—	Low · 45
47	MediEvil	61.9	61.9	—	Low · 45
48	Gravity Rush	61.6	61.6	—	Low · 45
49	Shadow of the Colossus / Ico / The Last Guardian	61.2	61.2	—	Low · 45
50	Everybody's Golf	60.9	60.9	—	Low · 45

Forecast scores are directional scenarios based on available market indicators, model weights, catalyst assumptions, licensing friction, and merchandise-market evidence. They are not predictions of actual sales or profit.

Scenario ranking

Rank	Franchise	Scenario score	Default score	Rank change	Confidence
1	Helldivers 2	86.0	86.0	—	High · 85
2	God of War	85.1	85.1	—	Medium · 78
3	Ghost of Tsushima	85.0	85.0	—	Medium · 80
4	Astro Bot	83.5	83.5	—	Medium · 79
5	Horizon	83.2	83.2	—	Medium · 77
6	The Last of Us	83.2	83.2	—	Medium · 75
7	Marvel's Spider-Man	82.8	82.8	—	Medium · 77
8	Gran Turismo	80.8	80.8	—	Medium · 75
9	Death Stranding	79.9	79.9	—	Medium · 66
10	Bloodborne	78.8	78.8	—	Medium · 64
11	Ratchet & Clank	77.6	77.6	—	Medium · 60
12	Uncharted	76.8	76.8	—	Medium · 60
13	LittleBigPlanet / Sackboy	76.1	76.1	—	Medium · 60
14	Resident Evil	75.8	75.8	—	Medium · 77
15	Final Fantasy VII	75.5	75.5	—	Medium · 73
16	MLB The Show	74.9	74.9	—	Medium · 63
17	Persona	74.5	74.5	—	Medium · 69
18	WipEout	73.9	73.9	—	Low · 45
19	Twisted Metal	73.2	73.2	—	Medium · 63
20	Elden Ring	72.8	72.8	—	Medium · 75
21	Metal Gear Solid	72.5	72.5	—	Medium · 64
22	Monster Hunter	72.1	72.1	—	Low · 59
23	Stellar Blade	71.7	71.7	—	Medium · 63
24	Like a Dragon / Yakuza	71.0	71.0	—	Low · 59
25	Kingdom Hearts	70.3	70.3	—	Low · 59
26	Demon's Souls	69.8	69.8	—	Medium · 60
27	Silent Hill	69.5	69.5	—	Low · 59
28	Nioh	68.7	68.7	—	Medium · 60
29	Days Gone	68.1	68.1	—	Medium · 60
30	Street Fighter	67.8	67.8	—	Low · 59
31	Crash Bandicoot	67.6	67.6	—	Low · 59
32	Tekken	67.5	67.5	—	Low · 59
33	Jak and Daxter	67.1	67.1	—	Low · 45
34	Sly Cooper	66.4	66.4	—	Low · 45
35	Ape Escape	66.1	66.1	—	Low · 45
36	Returnal	65.8	65.8	—	Medium · 60
37	inFAMOUS	65.2	65.2	—	Low · 45
38	Spyro	64.9	64.9	—	Low · 59
39	Until Dawn	64.8	64.8	—	Medium · 63
40	Journey	64.4	64.4	—	Medium · 60
41	PaRappa the Rapper	64.3	64.3	—	Low · 45
42	SOCOM	63.7	63.7	—	Low · 45
43	Patapon	63.5	63.5	—	Low · 45
44	Killzone	63.0	63.0	—	Low · 45
45	Resistance	62.6	62.6	—	Low · 45
46	MotorStorm	62.2	62.2	—	Low · 45
47	MediEvil	61.9	61.9	—	Low · 45
48	Gravity Rush	61.6	61.6	—	Low · 45
49	Shadow of the Colossus / Ico / The Last Guardian	61.2	61.2	—	Low · 45
50	Everybody's Golf	60.9	60.9	—	Low · 45